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China's economic development: stable expectations with confidence

(Summary description)"Stability prediction" is one of the "six stabilizations" proposed at the recent meeting of the political bureau of the CPC central committee. In the case of changing stability, understanding stabilit

China's economic development: stable expectations with confidence

(Summary description)"Stability prediction" is one of the "six stabilizations" proposed at the recent meeting of the political bureau of the CPC central committee. In the case of changing stability, understanding stabilit

Information
"Stability prediction" is one of the "six stabilizations" proposed at the recent meeting of the political bureau of the CPC central committee. In the case of changing stability, understanding stability expectations involves three questions: what is the current view of the economy? What are the trends? What's next? Multiple analyses have pointed out that the fundamentals of steady economic operation have not been changed, and the trend of steady and sound growth has not been changed. We will deepen supply-side structural reform, fight the "three major battles" well, deepen reform and expand opening-up, and steadily move the Chinese economy toward a stage of high-quality development.
What do you think
In the first half of the year, sound fundamentals were consolidated
"In the first half of the year, the Chinese economy continued to develop steadily and steadily." National bureau of statistics spokesman MAO shengyong said.
Where is stability?
First of all, China's GDP grew by 6.8% in the first half of the year. For 12 consecutive quarters, it has been running steadily in the medium-high speed range of 6.7% to 6.9%. China is still one of the best developing countries in the world. Looking at employment, the national urban survey unemployment rate has been below 5% for three consecutive months. In terms of prices, CPI rose by 2% in the first half of the year, showing a moderate upward trend. Grain is the foundation. The total summer grain output of China in 2018 is 138.72 million tons, which is a good harvest. Attracting foreign investment continued to make China more attractive, with 29,591 new foreign-funded enterprises set up in the first half of this year, an increase of 96.6 percent year-on-year.
Where is "good"?
Structural optimization and upgrading. In the first half of the year, the added value of the tertiary industry accounted for 54.3 percent of GDP, 0.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, it said. The service sector contributed 60.5 percent to economic growth, up 1.4 percentage points from a year earlier. Kinetic energy speeds up the transformation. In the first half of this year, the average number of new registered market entities was 18,100, representing a rapid growth of related industries and products with high technological content, such as technological progress, transformation and upgrading, and service consumption increased at a faster pace. In addition, quality and efficiency improvement.
On the whole, in the first half of the year, the sound fundamentals of China's economy were consolidated. More importantly, domestic demand is the decisive force in the pattern of economic growth. Although the external environment has changed, the foundation of China's steady economic growth is solid.
How's that
Be sure to achieve the annual target
It is of course important to analyze the economic situation, but more important to grasp the "potential" in operation.
What about the macro economy?
"" China's economy has great potential and is resilient. While the economy is at risk of volatility, there is no problem in maintaining overall stability and meeting the target of 6.5% for the year. National information center economic forecasting department macroeconomic research office director niuli stressed.
In terms of consumption, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth averaged 56.8% annually from 2011 to 2017, and the fundamental role of consumption in economic growth continued to increase. Especially since this year, the consumption expenditure in the fields of information and leisure has been growing rapidly and the consumption upgrade is in good condition. As a country with a huge market of nearly 1.4 billion people and more than 400 million middle-income people, China has great development potential and ample room for maneuver.
Looking at investment, although the growth rate has slowed down, but the structure is constantly improving. In particular, the investment for transformation and upgrading within the manufacturing industry has maintained a double-digit growth. Emerging industries have risen rapidly, and the growth of new momentum has injected continuous impetus into China's economic development.
Economic and trade frictions have brought pressure to China's economy to some extent, but they are generally limited and controllable. In recent years, China's economic structure has been continuously optimized. At present, domestic demand contributes over 90% to China's economic growth, and the dependence on foreign trade is about 33%, which is lower than the world average. What's more, China's all-round opening up, foreign trade is not entirely dependent on one country or region, and the mature multilateral trade system and the promotion of "One Belt And One Road" construction provide adequate alternatives.
How to do
Sound judgment strengthens confidence
In the end, stability of expectations depends on confidence. Confidence comes from a rational judgment on the direction of the economy, as well as from an accurate and timely response.
A recent meeting of the political bureau of the central committee of the communist party of China (CPC) put forward the idea of adhering to a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy and improving the forward-looking, flexible and effective policy.
"" proactive fiscal policies will play a bigger role in boosting domestic demand and restructuring." " Liu shangxi, director of the Chinese academy of fiscal sciences. The proactive fiscal policy will inject certainty into the economic and social operation, he said, and stabilize the national economy by implementing measures such as tax cuts and fees, encouraging research and innovation, supporting inclusive finance and supporting small, medium and micro businesses, and guiding the formation of good social expectations.
"" prudent monetary policy will provide more tangible support to the real economy." " Xu hongcai, deputy chief economist of the China center for international economic exchanges, said that the current policy direction is very clear. In terms of credit, more attention is paid to differentiation, there is pressure to retain and hold, and better combination of preventing and resolving financial risks and serving the real economy.
The enterprise is the market main body, the enterprise's confidence is particularly precious.
Miao rong, chief researcher of the China entrepreneur association, said the association recently organized a number of companies to communicate with each other about the changes in the external situation.
The more external circumstances change, the more you need to focus on doing your job.
China's economy does face some new challenges and uncertainties, but as long as China continues to deepen reform, expand opening-up, promote supply-side structural reform and continue to expand domestic demand, it is foreseeable that the economy will continue to operate within a reasonable range, according to several experts.
(editor in charge: duan siqi)

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